How Republicans Lost on Abortion

Hint: It Had More to Do With Terrible Strategy than Voters' Enthusiasm for Abortion

The 2022 Dobbs v Jackson decision was a remarkably win for the conservative right, having maneuvered for this outcome for decades.  Dobbs overturned Roe v Wade and allowed states to regulate abortion without federal interference.  At the center of the case was a Mississippi law which banned abortion after 15 weeks.  Despite this victory, Dobbs has been an anchor on the Republican party’s prospects as they’ve lost referendums on abortion in multiple states including GOP strongholds of Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio.

It didn’t have to be this way.  In fact, the law at the center of Dobbs, the Mississippi ban on abortions after 15 weeks, isn’t terribly radical.  It’s consistent with limits on abortion in much of Europe.  Likewise, 15-weeks is roughly consistent with median American attitudes on abortion.  Americans generally support early abortion on demand, but feel once the fetus begins to look more or less like a baby, abortion should be restricted to medical emergencies or other extreme situations such as rape and incest.

In a parallel world, Republicans might have held the line at 15 weeks, taken the win, and explained the value of their approach.  In this other universe, Dobbs could have been a political win for the GOP.

Instead, the GOP created bad optics.  One Missouri state representative introduced a bill that would specifically ban abortions for women with ectopic pregnancies.  Such pregnancies occur outside the uterus, often the fallopian tube.  These fetuses inevitably die, but if left to grow can cause serious injury or death to the mother.  This bill accomplished nothing aside from making the GOP look barbaric and cruel.  Laws that prevent abortion in the case of raped children or forcing women to carry to term fetuses with fatal abnormalities or prevent removal of fetuses that have already died in the uterus likewise cast the GOP as unthinking, callous extremists.

Some of the fault can be blamed on clumsy old laws coming back into force after Dobbs, or some rogue extremist politicians.  But any clear, reasonable GOP messaging or strategy appears absent.  The general trend has been for GOP led states to push for increasing restrictions on abortion earlier than the 15-week ban at the center of Dobbs.

If these moves are politically unpopular, particularly at the national level, why do it? Part of the answer is that most politics are local, not national.  But at the national level, as I wrote in my book How Madness Shapes History the US political system leaves us at the mercy of primary voters on both sides.  These voters tend to be more politically extreme and even psychologically poorly adjusted. Yet we entrust them with picking candidates for the national stage.  Big doners may also prefer sweeping action from politicians on core culture-war issues rather than moderation and compromise.

This means the GOP may be stuck with presidential candidates out of line with the national mood on abortion.  The GOP also has a disadvantage rhetorically.  The Democrats can point toward the practical issues of raped children, ectopic pregnancies, back-alley abortions or even just women poorly prepared to carry a baby to term.  Against this, the GOP has to make a philosophical argument about the humanity of a fetus.  To succeed, they’ll have to move their arguments beyond their religious conservative base to a secular main stage.  Possibly, the GOP could root arguments within the development of the fetal central nervous system, though such arguments would be complex.  Humanity doesn’t suddenly come on like a light switch at a particular week. 

For the moment, Democrats have the advantage.  Yet, it’s possible they might learn the wrong lesson, thinking public support for abortion is stronger than it is.  After all, it wasn’t that long ago Democratic politicians caused controversy by appearing to support abortion right up to the point of labor.  Several blue states allow abortion with no restrictions through the third trimester, an approach likely to be as unpopular on the national stage as the draconian restrictions in some GOP states. 

But to take advantage of Democratic weaknesses, the GOP would need both to moderate their position to tap into the national mood and develop clear, consistent messaging.  Thus far, they appear unable to do so.