Could Germany and the Central Powers Have Won WWI?
Almost certainly, had they been a bit more clever.
History counterfactuals are fun, because it’s interesting to consider how the world might be today if only things in history had been different. What if the Western Roman Empire hadn’t fallen to the German hordes in the 5th century AD? What if Martin Luther had been content to give out indulgences and hadn’t sparked the Protestant Reformation? What if the Nazis had won WWII? Hmm…seems like the Germans are at the center of a lot of these…
Counterfactuals are fun too because no one can really prove them wrong…or right. Certainly, varying points can be debated, and the merits of the argument critically considered. But ultimately, they’re counterfactual…it’s not how history DID turn out. As a bit of amusement, I’m going to introduce a new article type I’ll do from time to time: the counterfactual. My first one today: Could Germany (yep, the Germans again!) and the Central Powers have won WWI?
Could Germany and the Central Powers Have Won WWI?
Everybody loves to talk about WWII, probably because the Nazis are such epochal bad guys. When even the Soviet Communists get second fiddle on the global scale of evil schemers, you know you’re really bad. By contrast WWI tends to get much less attention, despite being a massive and historically pivotal war (indeed, without WWI, there would have been no WWII, at least not in the form it took in the 1940s). What really happened in history is that the Entente Powers of the UK, France, Italy, Russia (until the Communist Revolution of 1917) and, eventually the USA (as well as a horde of lesser powers who signed on but didn’t do a whole lot), beat the Germans, Austrians, Ottoman Turks and Bulgarians (the Central Powers). But could the Central Powers have won?
The gist of the problem for the Central Powers was 2-fold, namely that they had some bad luck, but also made some critically bad decisions. You can’t really fix luck, but bad decisions…those you can fix.
A Better Start
By 1914, Europe had settled down to a balance-of-powers approach with alliances between France and Russia on one side (the Entente) and Germany and Austria on the other (the Central Powers). This shifting set of alliances kiiiiiinda worked in the 19th century to avoid most major wars (if we ignore the Crimean War, Franco-Prussian War, the war between Germany and Austria, etc.) But by 1914, France was itching for a rematch of the Franco-Prussian War, Germany was nervous that Russia was gaining in power (they were) and trying to match the UK’s navy (they never did but see below). So, things were tense.
In 1914, Serbian nationalist terrorists assassinated Austrian Grand Duke Franz Ferdinand who, for his time, was actually kind of a progressive reformer on the issue of Serbian ethnic equality within the Austro-Hungarian Empire. This, naturally, made him unpopular both with his own Habsburg family, but also with Serbian ultra-nationalists, who wanted Serbian ethnic enclaves within the empire to peel away and join with the Serbian nation. Franzy was also likely a bit of a difficult personality and seemed to lack charisma which likely didn’t help his chances much.
Despite being unliked, his murder was an affront to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the Habsburgs. In the summer of 1914, much of international sympathy was actually with the Austrians. Even Russia, Serbia’s ally, figured Serbia would need to make amends.
As a bit of unluck, the role of the Serbian government in the assassination attempt was unclear at the time. It would turn out, some elements of Serbian military intelligence aided the assassins, reasonably interpretable as an act of war. Yet without clear evidence at the time, Austria’s demands on Serbia for recompense seemed excessive. The Habsburg government was a clumsy thing…it’s possible at this point that more patience and deft diplomacy might have kept international opinion with the Austrians, but alas, that wasn’t what happened and sympathy for the Austrians waned over the summer of 1914 as their response came across as excessive.
Serbia declined to acquiesce to all of the Austrian demands; Austria declared war on Serbia. Russia, bound to protect Serbia, mobilized, leading to war with Austria. Germany bound by treaty to Austria (and possibly egging them on a bit, inclined to fight Russia while Russia was still weak rather than inevitably stronger in the future), ended up at war with Russia which, in turn, assured French involvement as well.
Now we come to Germany’s critical mistake. German’s grand war scheme was to knock France out of the war quickly by a surprise invasion through neutral Belgium. Unfortunately for them, this assured the UK’s entry into the war as the UK had guaranteed Belgium’s independence. The attack through Belgium didn’t work in the end, and cost Germany another enemy added to the Entente and a bad political reputation as an aggressor that would cost them dearly in world opinion.
To be fair, not invading via Belgium would have prevented any chance of a quick end to the war, and we’re looking at history with 20/20 hindsight as they say. But honestly, it was a bad decision even at the time. The UK already leaned toward France in sympathy, but invading Belgium gave the UK a casus belli to enter the war. Germany would gain a further ally in the form of the Ottoman Empire, but trading out the Ottoman Empire for the UK would have been better.
More Battles of Jutland
Probably my most provocative suggestion is that Germany should have used their surface fleet more. By 1914, Germany had amassed a considerable surface navy, though still significantly smaller than Britain’s. In fear of losing it, the fleet barely left port, sallying forth only for the Battle of Jutland in 1916.
The Battle of Jutland has always been controversial. It was a British victory in the sense that it spooked the Germans out of ever using their surface fleet again. But tactically, it was a German victory…they sunk more British ships and killed more British sailors. To be sure, the UK had far more naval reserves to call upon. But the engagement suggested the German fleet, smaller though it was, was skilled, and with the cooperation of their U-boats, might have inflicted more pyrrhic victories on the UK, eventually allowing the German surface fleet to break out and harry British shipping.
Had they succeeded…they might have eased or broken the British blockade of Germany that did them so much damage.
The US Question
It’s often hard to realize but by 1917, Germany was on the verge of winning the war. Russia was defeated (becoming the Soviet Union), the French army had experienced mutinies and remained near exhaustion. Here, Germany made a critical miscalculation.
Key to German victory was keeping the Entente from growing. This meant specifically keeping the US out of the war. US sympathies lay with the UK (and to a lesser extent France), although there wasn’t yet a huge movement to get directly involved. Unrestricted submarine warfare, exemplified by the sinking of the Lusitania (which, again with the hindsight of history, was indeed carrying weapons for the UK), stoked tensions between the US and Germany. Yet the US hesitated to get directly involved.
Here, the Germans came up with a lamebrained scheme. What if Mexico declared war on the US, possibly with Japan switching sides and helping Mexico? Mexico could recover the SW territories (from the US perspective) lost in the Mexican American War. And Japan could use the chance to become dominant across the west and central Pacific. Unfortunately, in the form of the Zimmerman Telegram, Germany put this all in writing and, of course, it was intercepted by the US.
In 1917, Mexico was a hot mess and had exactly 0% chance of defeating the US in a war, with or without Japanese help. Both the Mexicans and Japanese knew this and, besides, the whole effort prematurely anticipated Japanese aspirations by about 20 years. The scheme had no chance of coming to fruition and essentially was an act of war, guaranteeing US entry into the war. Single-handedly, this was probably the worst decision made by the Germans in WWI.
Had they not bothered, Germany might have kept saying “nice doggy” to the US after the defeat of Russia, swung some forces to confront France and the UK, and also used some forces to prop up the teetering Ottoman Empire. Alas, millions of American soldiers went to Europe and that was the end of German aspirations. In a last gasp, Germany still almost won in early 1918, but with Americans now helping to defend the French, they had to admit there was no further road to victory and gave in.
What Would the 20th Century Have Looked Like with a German Victory?
With a few critical decisions, the Central Powers could have kept the US and perhaps even the UK out of the war. Even if the Ottoman Empire hadn’t joined the Central Powers, Germany and Austria probably would have beaten the French and Russians.
As a result of victory, Germany would have emerged from the war as an enormously powerful country. It, and Austria, would have remained monarchies and even the Ottoman Empire would have continued to limp along for a while. A host of countries from Ukraine to the Baltic nations would have been freed of Russian influence, though probably with pro-German governments put in their place. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Yugoslavia wouldn’t have come into being. France would likely have lost more territory to the Germans and been permanently weakened.
However, this would have put Germany and the UK on a collision course, even if the UK had stayed out of the war. Without allies in Europe, the UK probably couldn’t have broken German hegemony in Europe but an escalating contest over naval power would have pushed the countries toward a clash.
In Russia, we still end up with the Soviet Union, likely creating a 3-way conflict (the UK was hostile to the Soviet Union all the way through 1941). But there would have been any Nazis, no Holocaust. In the end, we probably still have something called “WW2” although it might have been a 3-way conflict between Germany, the UK and Soviet Union as none of these powers were natural allies. Japan becomes a wildcard, mainly hostile to the Soviet Union (and ultimately the US) and inclined toward their sphere of influence in the Western Pacific. Italy is humiliated for their fickle performance in WWI, whether they join the Entente or not. Probably they remain hostile toward Austria, offering the UK’s best chance of some toehold in European influence.
Ultimately, there was probably no version of Germany winning WWI that brings peace to the world.
Of course, I am rendering judgment from 100+ years on with complete emotional detachment. Panic and irrationality drive many bad decisions. If you were interested in this post, learn more about that in my book Catastrophe! How Psychology Explains Why Good People Make Bad Situations Worse.